Coeur Mining, Inc.
1 Investment Thesis
Coeur Mining is no longer the story it was two years ago. Two transformative, all-stock roll-ups — SilverCrest Metals (February 2025) and New Gold (March 2026, ~$6.9B implied equity value at close) — have converted a single-country, mid-tier silver-gold miner into a seven-asset North American precious-and-critical-metals platform producing on the order of 1.25 million gold-equivalent ounces a year, entirely within Tier-1 jurisdictions. That is the operational half of the thesis. The other half is the metal itself: gold at $4,350/oz is up 28% year-over-year, silver at $64.10/oz has more than doubled in 2026, and copper at $6.60/lb is up 47% year-over-year. Coeur now sits at the intersection of two structural trends we have been positioned for across the portfolio — gold and silver’s re-monetisation as the exit hatch from currency debasement, and copper’s re-rating as the binding constraint on electrification. Very few producers give a single-ticker line into all three.
The market has not caught up. CDE trades at $15.65, roughly 44% below its 52-week high of $27.77, even as the company just printed record quarterly revenue of $1.08B and free cash flow of $388M. The stock sold off 8% on the Q2 2026 print purely on an EPS optics miss ($0.12 vs. $0.32 expected) — the kind of headline-number reaction we have learned to treat as noise, not signal, when the underlying cash generation is accelerating. The Street’s average 12-month price target of $24.02 (nine buys, zero sells) implies roughly 54% upside from here, and that target was set before fully reflecting a full quarter of consolidated New Gold production.
Our view: this is a scarcity-asset compounder trading at a valuation still anchored to its pre-transformation self. We are comfortable accumulating into weakness — start with a nibble here, and add on confirmation of the New Afton K-Zone feasibility study (H2 2026) and continued Silvertip permitting progress. The more the market discounts a record-cash-flow quarter because of a single non-cash-driven EPS line, the more interesting this becomes.
Why this fits the Muffett framework
- Commodity scarcity megatrend: gold and silver as monetary assets on the path toward our long-standing structural target, with Coeur offering direct, unhedged torque to both metals across a co-product portfolio.
- De-dollarisation / financial-repression escape: USD purchasing-power erosion and a Fed leaning toward easier policy on softening labour data are the same forces pushing central banks and, increasingly, non-Western retail savers into bullion — Coeur is a levered, investable proxy on that demand even though every ounce is mined in Canada, the U.S., or Mexico.
- Electrification optionality: the New Afton copper stream (60M+ lbs/yr at a CAS of $1.20–$1.35/lb against $6.60/lb spot) is a free option on the electrification build-out we track separately in the critical-minerals bucket.
- Valuation vs. own history: CDE at 44% below 52-week highs, against a metals complex making new highs, is exactly the historical-valuation dislocation we look to buy.
2 The Transformation: A ~1.25M AuEq Oz North American Powerhouse
Coeur’s roll-up strategy has been deliberate and fast. SilverCrest brought Las Chispas — a high-grade Sonora, Mexico underground asset — into the fold in February 2025. Thirteen months later, the ~$6.9B, all-stock acquisition of New Gold added Rainy River (Ontario) and New Afton (British Columbia), both large-scale, free-cash-flow-generative assets. The combined entity now owns, wholly and outright, seven cash-flowing mines across Canada, the United States, and Mexico — a footprint the deck below frames as an ~$18B market-cap entity at the time the transformation completed. At today’s $15.65 share price the market capitalisation sits closer to $16.2B, which is itself the valuation gap at the heart of our thesis: the assets have scaled faster than the share price has re-rated to reflect them.
Reading Coeur’s Numbers: CAS, Not AISC
Coeur reports Costs Applicable to Sales (CAS) at the mine level rather than the more commonly cited All-In Sustaining Cost (AISC). CAS strips out corporate allocations and sustaining/growth capital to show the pure operating economics of each mine — useful for isolating which assets are genuinely the cash engines versus which are carrying corporate overhead. The trade-off: CAS will always look more flattering than AISC, so cross-company comparisons need the same yardstick on both sides. Within CAS, Coeur further splits its assets into two accounting conventions depending on how by-product revenue is treated:
| Accounting Method | Applied At | Mechanic |
|---|---|---|
| Co-Product Accounting | Palmarejo, Rochester, Las Chispas, New Afton | Direct costs are split between metals (e.g., gold vs. silver) in proportion to their relative revenue contribution. |
| By-Product Accounting | Wharf, Rainy River | Revenue from the secondary metal (typically silver) is treated as a direct cost credit against the primary metal’s CAS — flattering the headline gold cost figure. |
The practical implication for investors: by-product-accounted gold costs (Wharf, Rainy River) look artificially low because silver revenue is netted directly against them, while co-product mines (Palmarejo, Rochester, Las Chispas, New Afton) show each metal’s true stand-alone economics. We prefer the co-product disclosure precisely because it doesn’t let a strong secondary metal mask a weakening primary one — and in this metals tape, it doesn’t need to.
3 Portfolio Summary
Seven wholly-owned operations, three jurisdictions, one balance sheet. The table below consolidates 2026 guidance across the platform; asset-level detail and strategic context follow in Section 4.
| Asset | Location | Type | Ownership | 2026 Gold Guid. | 2026 Silver Guid. | Mine Life |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Palmarejo | Chihuahua, MX | Underground | 100%* | 95k–105k oz | 6.25M–7.0M oz | < 9 yrs |
| Rochester | Nevada, US | Open-Pit Heap Leach | 100% | 70k–90k oz | 6.4M–7.8M oz | to 2038 |
| Las Chispas | Sonora, MX | High-Grade U/G | 100% | 55k–65k oz | 5.5M–6.3M oz | < 9 yrs |
| Kensington | Alaska, US | Underground | 100% | 98k–110k oz | — | < 9 yrs |
| Wharf | South Dakota, US | Open-Pit Heap Leach | 100% | 72k–90k oz | 50k–200k oz† | to 2036 (12 yr) |
| New Afton | British Columbia, CA | U/G Block Cave | 100% | 60k–80k oz | 130k–180k oz† | Reserves to 2032+ |
| Rainy River | Ontario, CA | Open-Pit & U/G | 100% | 230k–275k oz | 350k–450k oz† | to 2035 |
*Palmarejo is 100% owned but subject to a 50% gold stream to Franco-Nevada at the lesser of $800/oz or spot — a legacy financing obligation that caps upside on half the mine’s gold production regardless of where spot trades. † Denotes silver treated as a by-product cost credit rather than reported as standalone guidance.
Margin Economics Across the Portfolio
This is the table that matters most to us. At current spot — gold $4,350/oz, silver $64.10/oz, copper $6.60/lb (August 7, 2026) — every single asset in the portfolio is generating extraordinary cash margins. Las Chispas, the newest and highest-grade underground asset, is the standout: its silver CAS of $12.50–$14.50/oz against $64.10/oz spot implies a margin north of $49/oz, among the best in the industry. Even Rainy River, the highest-cost gold asset in the portfolio at $2,150–$2,350/oz CAS, is still clearing roughly $2,000–$2,200/oz of margin. This is not a portfolio where any single asset needs metals to stay this high to remain profitable — it is a portfolio where, at current prices, nearly every ounce and pound produced converts to free cash flow at an exceptional rate.
| Asset (Primary Metal) | 2026 CAS Guidance | Spot Reference | Implied Cash Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Las Chispas — Gold | $750 – $950/oz | $4,350/oz | ~$3,400 – $3,600/oz |
| Las Chispas — Silver | $12.50 – $14.50/oz | $64.10/oz | ~$49.60 – $51.60/oz |
| Palmarejo — Gold | $700 – $900/oz | $4,350/oz | ~$3,450 – $3,650/oz |
| Palmarejo — Silver | $21.50 – $23.50/oz | $64.10/oz | ~$40.60 – $42.60/oz |
| Rochester — Gold | $1,350 – $1,550/oz | $4,350/oz | ~$2,800 – $3,000/oz |
| Rochester — Silver | $23.00 – $25.00/oz | $64.10/oz | ~$39.10 – $41.10/oz |
| Wharf — Gold | $1,400 – $1,600/oz | $4,350/oz | ~$2,750 – $2,950/oz |
| Kensington — Gold | $1,750 – $1,950/oz | $4,350/oz | ~$2,400 – $2,600/oz |
| New Afton — Gold | $1,000 – $1,200/oz | $4,350/oz | ~$3,150 – $3,350/oz |
| New Afton — Copper | $1.20 – $1.35/lb | $6.60/lb | ~$5.25 – $5.40/lb |
| Rainy River — Gold | $2,150 – $2,350/oz | $4,350/oz | ~$2,000 – $2,200/oz |
4 Asset Deep Dives
4.1 Palmarejo — The Gold-Silver Complex (Chihuahua, Mexico)
Palmarejo is Coeur’s original co-product gold-silver complex, guiding to 95,000–105,000 oz gold and 6.25M–7.0M oz silver in 2026 at CAS of $700–$900/oz and $21.50–$23.50/oz respectively. The strategic focus is squarely on the Eastern District, where the La Unión and San Miguel deposits — now more than 20% of Palmarejo’s total mineral inventory — are absorbing roughly 70% of the 2026 exploration budget. Mine life is sub-nine years on current reserves, which is the one structural knock on this asset; the offset is that accelerated drilling continues to deliver wide, high-grade intercepts that have historically outpaced depletion.
4.2 Rochester — The Long-Life Silver-Gold Anchor (Nevada, USA)
Rochester is the portfolio’s duration asset: a 100%-owned open-pit heap leach operation in Pershing County with a mine life stretching to 2038. 2026 guidance is 6.4M–7.8M oz silver and 70,000–90,000 oz gold at CAS of $23.00–$25.00/oz and $1,350–$1,550/oz. The POA 11 expansion — completed in 2024 and covering a new three-stage crushing facility, new leach pads, and a Merrill-Crowe processing facility — unlocked a materially larger reserve base and, in Coeur’s own words, “ensures viability at current metal prices.” With metal prices where they are, that is an understatement.
4.3 Las Chispas — High-Grade Underground Growth (Sonora, Mexico)
Acquired via SilverCrest in February 2025, Las Chispas is the highest-margin asset Coeur owns: 5.5M–6.3M oz silver and 55,000–65,000 oz gold guided for 2026 at CAS of just $12.50–$14.50/oz and $750–$950/oz. The Augusta and La Promesa veins, discovered in 2025, were already integrated into year-end 2025 reserves — a genuinely fast discovery-to-reserve conversion cycle — and drilling continues to aggressively target the Gap Zone for further extension.
4.4 Kensington — High-Grade Alaskan Gold (Alaska, USA)
Kensington, north of Juneau, is a 100%-owned underground gold mine guiding 98,000–110,000 oz in 2026 at a CAS of $1,750–$1,950/oz — the highest-cost gold asset outside Rainy River, reflecting the underground development intensity and Alaska’s logistics. The mine now operates under the POA 1 permit amendment, which allows expanded tailings/waste rock storage and increased mill throughput, and Coeur is mid-way through a capital programme specifically aimed at extending and enhancing mine life.
4.5 Wharf — Steady-State Gold via Heap Leach (South Dakota, USA)
Wharf is Coeur’s reserve-replacement masterclass: acquired in 2015 with a five-year mine life, relentless exploration investment has pushed that out to a 12-year horizon (to ~2036). 2026 guidance is 72,000–90,000 oz gold and 50,000–200,000 oz silver (treated as a by-product cost credit) at a gold CAS of $1,400–$1,600/oz.
4.6 New Afton — Gold-Copper Block Cave Excellence (British Columbia, Canada)
Acquired via New Gold in March 2026, New Afton is an underground block cave (C-Zone) guiding 60,000–80,000 oz gold, 50M–65M lbs copper, and 130,000–180,000 oz silver (by-product credit) in 2026, at CAS of $1,000–$1,200/oz gold and $1.20–$1.35/lb copper. The near-term operational focus is ramping C-Zone throughput to 15,000 tonnes per day and unlocking the newly established K-Zone — a maiden resource of 47.6M tonnes M&I containing 715,000 oz gold and 606M lbs copper, which positions the asset for a substantial mine-life extension pending a feasibility study commencing in H2 2026. Reserves-only mine life currently runs to 2032.
4.7 Rainy River — Large-Scale Free Cash Flow Engine (Ontario, Canada)
Rainy River, also acquired via New Gold in March 2026, is the largest single gold producer in the portfolio: 230,000–275,000 oz gold and 350,000–450,000 oz silver (by-product credit) guided for 2026, at a gold CAS of $2,150–$2,350/oz — the highest in the book, but delivered at scale. As a consolidated asset it delivered record free cash flow in 2025, replaced depletion, and added a Northwest extension to the open-pit mine plan that extended the reserves-only mine life by two years to 2035.
5 Growth Optionality: Silvertip
Beyond the seven cash-flowing operations, Coeur holds Silvertip, an underground exploration project in northern British Columbia targeting high-grade silver, zinc, and lead — what the company positions as North America’s premier polymetallic critical-minerals project. While the operating seven drive current free cash flow, Silvertip is explicitly framed as Coeur’s option on future critical-mineral growth: the company is actively advancing project studies and exploration to define the optimal expansion and development pathway ahead of a new permitting cycle.
6 The Muffett Lens: Megatrend, Macro & Valuation Overlay
Megatrend: Commodity & Monetary-Asset Scarcity
Coeur sits at the confluence of the resource-scarcity megatrend we track across the portfolio. Gold at $4,350/oz is up 28% year-over-year and remains on the structural path toward our long-standing $10,000 target as fiat currencies continue to be diluted through deficit spending and financial repression. Silver at $64.10/oz — up over 100% year-to-date — is the hybrid case: part monetary asset riding gold’s coattails, part industrial metal riding the same electrification and solar demand curve as copper. Copper itself, up 47% year-over-year to $6.60/lb, is the purest read on the electrification build-out. Very few single equities give unhedged, co-product exposure to all three in Tier-1 jurisdictions the way Coeur now does.
Geopolitical & Macro Overlay
- Rate-cut repricing: softening U.S. labour data has pulled forward rate-cut expectations, which is unambiguously supportive of non-yielding monetary assets — gold and silver have both extended gains on exactly this dynamic in early August 2026.
- De-dollarisation flows: persistent deficit spending and currency debasement continue to push central banks and, increasingly, non-Western retail savers toward bullion as the exit hatch from fiat exposure — Coeur is a liquid, investable proxy on that flow even though every ounce is mined in Canada, the U.S., or Mexico.
- Jurisdictional premium: 100% of Coeur’s production footprint sits in Tier-1, rule-of-law jurisdictions — a meaningful re-rating factor versus peers with African or politically unstable exposure, and one the market has not yet fully priced given the stock’s discount to its own history.
Valuation vs. Coeur’s Own History
This is where the disconnect is starkest. CDE closed at $15.65 on August 7, 2026, a full 44% below its 52-week high of $27.77 — a high that was set on a smaller, less diversified, lower-free-cash-flow version of this company. Since then, Coeur has closed the largest deal in its history (New Gold, ~$6.9B), added two large-scale, high-margin assets, delivered record quarterly revenue ($1.08B) and record free cash flow ($388M), and announced a $750M share buyback programme alongside an inaugural dividend policy — the first capital-return commitment in the company’s history. And yet the stock sits closer to its 52-week low ($10.92) than its high. The Street’s average price target of $24.02 (nine buys, zero sells, zero holds) implies ~54% upside and, in our view, still understates the earnings power of a fully consolidated New Gold contribution running through a full fiscal year.
“A record cash-flow quarter that sells off 8% on an EPS optics miss is not a broken thesis — it’s a gift.”
Position Sizing
We’d frame this as a name to build carefully rather than chase. Start with a nibble at current levels, and add on two specific confirmations: (1) the New Afton K-Zone feasibility study in H2 2026, which will crystallise the scale of Coeur’s copper optionality, and (2) continued permitting progress at Silvertip. We are not afraid of further drawdown if the thesis — record cash flow, Tier-1 jurisdictions, direct torque to three scarce metals — remains intact; if anything, the more this sells off against a backdrop of record free cash flow and rising metal prices, the more interesting it becomes.
7 Key Risks
- Integration risk: Coeur has closed two large, all-stock acquisitions in thirteen months (SilverCrest, Feb 2025; New Gold, Mar 2026). Realising cost and operational synergies across seven wholly-owned mines in three countries is execution-heavy, and management’s near-term credibility rests on delivering it cleanly.
- Mine-life concentration: Palmarejo, Las Chispas, and Kensington all carry sub-nine-year headline reserve lives. The thesis assumes continued organic reserve replacement (as demonstrated at Wharf and Las Chispas to date) — a pause in exploration success would compress these horizons faster than the market currently expects.
- Permitting dependency: Kensington’s mine-life extension depends on continued permit amendments (POA 1 and beyond); Silvertip’s entire value depends on a still-undefined future permitting cycle in British Columbia.
- Stream overhang: The Franco-Nevada stream caps Palmarejo’s gold upside on 50% of production at the lesser of $800/oz or spot — a legacy financing structure that mutes the benefit of further gold appreciation on a meaningful slice of output.
- Metal-price reversal: Every margin figure in this report assumes gold near $4,350/oz, silver near $64/oz, and copper near $6.60/lb. A sharp reversal in any of the three — particularly if the Fed surprises hawkish or real rates spike — would compress cash margins fastest at the highest-cost assets (Rainy River, Kensington).
- Feasibility & development timing: New Afton’s K-Zone upside and Silvertip’s entire investment case are pre-feasibility / pre-permit. Delays to the H2 2026 New Afton feasibility study or a slower Silvertip permitting cycle would push out two of the report’s key medium-term catalysts.
8 Conclusion & Rating
Coeur Mining has transformed itself into a seven-asset, Tier-1-jurisdiction platform generating extraordinary cash margins across gold, silver, and copper — precisely the three metals at the centre of the scarcity and electrification megatrends we track. The market has not caught up: CDE trades 44% below its 52-week high despite record revenue, record free cash flow, an inaugural capital-return programme, and a fully consolidated New Gold contribution still working its way through consensus estimates. Las Chispas and Rochester anchor the margin profile; New Afton and Silvertip provide the copper and critical-minerals optionality; Rainy River provides the scale.
