Salesforce and Nasdaq Call June 2026
Semiconductors Distribute, the S&P Doesn't Blink — and Salesforce Becomes the IGV Value Case
This week's post did two jobs at once. The first half was a pure technical read on the Nasdaq: semiconductors were already distributing into strength, the index was pulling away from the S&P 500, and a specific liquidity zone below price was flagged as the level to watch before any bullish continuation. The second half pivoted to fundamentals: inside IGV, the software-and-internet basket tagged to the AI-platformisation megatrend, one name had been left behind by its peers — badly enough that a discounted cash flow model put its fair value 66% above where it was trading. That name was Salesforce.
01 The Setup: A Nasdaq Already Distributing
The daily Nasdaq chart (US 100 Cash CFD) marked out a Range High and a Range Low, a Standard Deviation Target near 31,107 on the bullish side, and — more importantly for the near term — a Liquidity Zone / Max Fear Zone roughly 27,800–28,400 on the downside. That zone mattered because it sat on top of the 20-week EMA that had gone untested since the index broke out of it back in April. The read: the range low had already been purged once, price was likely to sweep back down into that liquidity pocket, and — per the post — a bounce there, confirmed by a bullish break in market structure on the 4-hour chart, would set up the best reward-to-risk entry for longs. The post also noted two new additions to the "strategic" portfolio that week: BlackRock and Visa.
02 The Divergence: Semis Lag, the S&P Doesn't Blink
The second chart laid the Nasdaq-100 and the S&P 500 side by side on the daily. The Nasdaq-100 was making a lower high and a lower low — the post's read: distribution concentrated in semiconductors. The S&P 500, over the same stretch, was making a higher high and a higher low. Two benchmarks that normally move together were pulling in opposite directions, and the post's own conclusion was cautious rather than triumphant about it.
"...the best reward ratio for longs" — contingent on a bullish break in market structure on the 4-hour chart confirming first.
03 The IGV Angle: Ranking the AI Beneficiaries
The post then turned to IGV — software and internet names sitting squarely inside the AI-platformisation megatrend — and ranked four of them on relative performance: Atlassian (TEAM) the clear leader, Microsoft and ServiceNow roughly flat to slightly negative, and Salesforce dead last. The framing was direct: these are all AI beneficiaries by business model, so a name lagging this badly inside its own megatrend basket, while nothing has structurally broken in the business, is where the valuation case starts.
04 The Trade: A DCF Case for the Group's Laggard
Rather than leave the laggard call as a chart observation, the post backed it with a discounted cash flow model built for Salesforce, laying out Bear, Base, and Bull cases against the stock's price at the time.
| Scenario | Implied Value | Upside from Call Price |
|---|---|---|
| Bear Case | — | — |
| Base Case | $282.98 | +65.7% |
| Bull Case | $479.27 | +180.7% |
A 66% gap between price and a base-case fair value, on a name sitting inside a structural megatrend rather than a melting ice cube, is the kind of setup this desk tends to frame as a nibble first — not a full position on day one, and not afraid of further drawdown if the AI-platformisation thesis behind Agentforce stays intact. The post also flagged a separate "High Conviction" basket the same week, where Salesforce was already sitting near the bottom alongside Microsoft, Uber, and Boston Scientific — the last of those framed bullishly into its July 29 earnings.
05 Verdict: How It Played Out
Two separate calls, checked against public market data through September 4, 2026.
| Date | Event | Nasdaq Composite | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2, 2026 | Nasdaq's prior all-time high | 27,093.90 | — |
| Jul 17, 2026 | Day before the call | 25,520.24 | 7,457.69 |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Correction low, semiconductor-led | 24,442.94 | 7,316.15 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | S&P 500's new all-time high | 26,729.16 | 7,810.01 |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Most recent close | 26,522.15 | 7,725.84 |
Call to Jul 29 low: Nasdaq −4.2%, S&P −1.9%. Call to Sep 4: Nasdaq +3.9% (still −2.1% below its own June ATH), S&P +3.6% (a fresh ATH already banked in between, Sep 4 sitting −1.1% off it).
Read the indexed lines alone and the two benchmarks look like they've moved by similar amounts since the call — that's not the real story. The real story is each index's distance from its own prior high. The S&P made a new one on August 14. The Nasdaq, as of September 4, still hasn't — even after clawing back almost all of a 10% correction. That's exactly the lower-high/higher-high divergence the post flagged, now with real closes on both sides of it. What didn't go quite to script: the post's own liquidity zone (roughly 27,800–28,400 on its NDX/CFD chart) implied a relatively shallow dip before a bounce. What actually followed was a much deeper, broader-index correction — a full 10% round trip on the Nasdaq Composite — before that bounce arrived.
| Date | Event | CRM Close | Change from Call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 17, 2026 | Day before the call | $170.77 | — |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Post-call low | $156.93 | −8.1% |
| Aug 26, 2026 | Day before Q2 earnings | $205.62 | +20.4% |
| Aug 27, 2026 | Q2 beat, $2.6B Anthropic stake gain, Agentforce ARR +240% YoY | $252.05 | +47.6% |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Most recent close | $259.23 | +51.8% |
Measured from the Jul 23 post-call low instead of the call date itself: +65.2%, almost identical to the DCF's own Base Case upside of +65.7%. CRM has now closed roughly 92% of the distance to that $282.98 Base Case target; the Bull Case ($479.27) remains a long way off.
Confirmed — the divergence was real, and Salesforce re-rated hard, just not by quite the number claimed
The technical half of this call holds up cleanly. The Nasdaq-100/S&P 500 divergence the post flagged on July 18 was not a chart artifact — it played out with real closes. Semiconductors dragged the Nasdaq Composite into a genuine 10% correction (27,093.90 to 24,442.94) while the S&P 500 barely dipped (−1.9%) and went on to print a fresh all-time high on August 14 (7,810.01), a high the Nasdaq still hasn't matched as of September 4. The one piece that didn't go exactly to script is depth: the post's liquidity zone implied a shallower dip than what actually happened — price fell straight through it into a full correction before the bounce arrived.
The fundamental half is the more interesting story. Salesforce did not rise "almost 70%" from the July 17 call price — the actual move is +51.8%, from $170.77 to $259.23. But measured from where the stock actually bottomed six trading days later, on July 23 at $156.93, the rally is +65.2% — a figure close enough to "almost 70%" that it's likely the real source of the claim, and coincidentally close to the DCF's own Base Case upside of +65.7% quoted in the original post. Either way, the direction of the call was right and the magnitude was large: a Q2 beat, a $2.6 billion mark-to-market gain on the Anthropic stake, and Agentforce annual recurring revenue up more than 240% year-on-year did for Salesforce's share price what the DCF table argued it deserved. The stock has now closed about 92% of the gap to the $282.98 Base Case fair value that anchored the call.
