DXY and GOLD Analysis: Looking for DXY top- 18 Jun 2026

We are writing this blog the morning after the FOMC meeting. The FOMC statement has indicated that the rates could potentially be raised in the future. This caused the DXY to rally and gold to fall. The 10 year yield has also rallied. But we are seeing divergences between the relationships of all the 3 assets, which makes us believe that the DXY top is near.

The chart compares the daily chart of DXY, Gold and the 10 year yields. We want you to focus first on the DXY and Gold. They trade inverse to each other. But here we have Gold making a lower low and DXY has not made a higher high yet. It is possible that it might continue rallying and make this divergence invalid. But as our overall view is bullish on gold, we will look for reasons to go long on gold. We are waiting for confirmation of DXY top. We will be looking at price action on DXY to look for signs of a top.

If you look at the 10 year yield and compare with DXY the 10 year yield has topped in May and has made a lower high where as the DXY has made higher high when comparing with MAY. Again this is divergence and although this needs to be confirmed by price action ( DXY falling hard) we are ready to take action if this were the case. We have already taken a long on AUDUSD at 7030 with a stoploss of 25 pips. This is because we like AUDUSD which is a fundamentally strong currency.

We have had a long period of consolidation in DXY. The price took the lows of the consolidation previously and now the price has taken the highs of the consolidation. If you look closely the price took out the high by 1 pip. It could still continue higher today and invalidate this setup. It could also do another purge before falling. But the trading idea remains the same. We look for signs of weakness in DXY on small timeframes and take trades here at lower timeframes with small stoploss.

The whole idea will become invalidated if DXY rallies and closes strongly above the liquidity line. This will invalidate the purge idea that we are looking at.

Gold:

Since Gold is inverse of the DXY, we think that gold has bottomed and the confirmation of that would be the price going above yesterday’s high. This would indicate a double purge.

All analysis done in good faith and for educational purposes only